NFG Partners 'On Point' Market Outlook Q4 2026
Q3 2026 was a quarter of contrasts. A calm summer gave way to a testing September, as the Iran conflict escalated again, oil returned towards $100 a barrel and inflation proved stubborn. The US Federal Reserve, now led by Kevin Warsh, raised interest rates for the first time since 2023, and the yield on 10-year US government bonds climbed to its highest level since 2002. Equities, by contrast, held up well.
That resilience is welcome, but the picture beneath the surface is more cautious. Our indicators have turned defensive, market gains rest on an increasingly narrow group of companies, and much of Big Tech’s recent profit growth has come from revaluing stakes in private companies rather than from operations. In this environment, we believe patience, liquidity and the flexibility to act quickly will matter more than chasing headline returns.
In our Q4 2026 Market Outlook, Keeping Our Options Open – Positioning for Higher Yields, we explain why we have reduced equity exposure in measured, reversible steps and sold our remaining gold. We examine why government bonds are not yet a safe haven, why industrial commodities remain a core holding, and how we are positioning portfolios for the opportunities that periods of strain invariably bring.